Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.205966 0.247432 0.297150 0.361778 0.444481 0.548021 6.894571e-01
2025-06-01 0.151119 0.198156 0.261147 0.353704 0.489792 0.688500 1.012385e+00
2025-06-08 0.116352 0.163987 0.234002 0.348558 0.539904 0.864125 1.498224e+00
2025-06-15 0.093283 0.140135 0.215022 0.350505 0.606796 1.112767 2.321620e+00
2025-06-22 0.076149 0.121036 0.198407 0.352130 0.680273 1.437707 3.693389e+00
2025-06-29 0.060770 0.101110 0.175097 0.334252 0.712155 1.720434 5.463367e+00
2025-07-06 0.044191 0.075457 0.134880 0.268802 0.607893 1.598746 5.861003e+00
2025-07-13 0.037552 0.066648 0.124996 0.266262 0.662200 2.005958 9.502321e+00
2025-07-20 0.033198 0.061271 0.120749 0.276021 0.762142 2.721608 1.792821e+01
2025-07-27 0.029935 0.057382 0.118762 0.291648 0.899412 3.865582 3.875360e+01
2025-08-03 0.026868 0.053254 0.115179 0.302172 1.036139 5.384995 8.880407e+01
2025-08-10 0.023582 0.047974 0.107433 0.297313 1.114142 6.858150 1.896892e+02
2025-08-17 0.020275 0.042231 0.097641 0.284056 1.159694 8.487236 4.382623e+02
2025-08-24 0.018203 0.039002 0.093745 0.290170 1.322522 12.279377 1.880945e+03
2025-08-31 0.016429 0.036149 0.090163 0.296473 1.510666 18.215738 1.565014e+04
2025-09-07 0.015005 0.033897 0.087752 0.307033 1.762577 28.847720 1.292032e+06
2025-09-14 0.013727 0.031770 0.085153 0.316124 2.042893 46.731613 NaN
2025-09-21 0.012252 0.028835 0.079183 0.306605 2.161663 64.752512 NaN
2025-09-28 0.010142 0.023828 0.065266 0.251587 1.757246 51.080816 NaN
2025-10-05 0.009309 0.022264 0.062590 0.252586 1.944716 78.338142 NaN
2025-10-12 0.008751 0.021377 0.062005 0.264662 2.305882 147.689495 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008313 0.020760 0.062232 0.282125 2.823279 330.425781 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007842 0.019959 0.061574 0.294519 3.352079 762.851629 NaN